Recoil from the Arab Spring

I’m not aware of an official gestation period for human disenchantment, but nine months after the Egyptian revolution, the crowds are back in Tahrir Square calling for change. The unrest of early 2011 gave birth to what seemed on the surface a highly efficient uprising. From the initial protests, through the ‘day of rage’ on January 25^th, the momentum for social and political reform gathered pace until the resignation of President Hosni Mubarak, under six weeks later on February 11^th. Fast work, but not thorough, it would seem. The ruling military powers who undertook to hold the reigns, temporarily, while the dust settled and the wheels of democracy began turning, are still in control. The dust has cleared and the picture looks very much as it did last year, only the cast has changed.   

Amnesty International have now published a report indicating that the Supreme Council of Armed Forces (SCAF) have not only failed to deliver on promises of reform, but many of the human rights abuses that characterised the previous regime have continued, escalating in some cases. Far from a measured devolvement of military powers, the remit of emergency law imposed under Mubarak has effectively been extended, complete with military courts and brutal treatment of dissenting voices. Amnesty say “the tradition of repressive rule” has continued. SCAF admit that 12,000 civilians have been dealt their brand of military justice, 13 of them sentenced to death. Reports of torture in captivity abound, in tandem with failure to investigate reported abuse.

In the face of renewed protest and the glare of the international media spotlight, Field Marshal Tantawi, head honcho in uniform, has promised an accelerated path to democratic rule, simultaneously accepting the offered resignations of the entire cabinet, whilst failing to tender his own. Those tasting tear gas in the side streets of Cairo have reason to doubt his intentions. It comes as no real surprise of course that after the fat cat gets toppled, the stand-in finds he likes the taste of cream too, we’ve all read Animal Farm. The army have been effectively running the show all along, maintaining the status quo by fair means or foul. They will no doubt have assumed that revolution meant a new figurehead to the ship, but the crew keep rowing. But the growing thousands in the streets want democracy. The notion that the army no longer run the show, but carry out the stage directions of a producer elected by the audience, may be a pill they won’t swallow without someone holding their noses. And you would have to reach over a gun to do that.

Septic Blatter

Sepp Blatter may have now taken top spot on the list of figures least likely to get a job with the United Nations. Just above the Duke of Edinburgh. The President of FIFA, football’s world governing body, says there is no racism in the game, and that if words were said in the heat of battle, the affected party should say it is just a game and shake hands afterwards. Never before in the history of kicking stuff has someone so highly ranked said something so highly rank. Unless you count Blatter’s other blurtings on homosexuality and female footballers of course. He’s a joke, the topic isn’t. The FA currently has two alleged cases of racism in football to investigate, while the Kick It Out campaign is the latest initiative set up to tackle the issue.  

It comes in the week that the Stephen Lawrence murder trial begins at the Old Bailey. 18 years after the black teenager was racially abused then attacked by a gang of young white men, his parents are still hoping for the justice that has so far eluded them. In the time from crime to culpability the world has changed, but not everyone in it.

At the time of Stephen Lawrence’s death, in mid 1993, 10.6% of the UK population was unemployed. To put that into context, figures out this week put October’s rate at 8.3%, a 15 year high in itself. Then, as now, Britain was staring down the barrel of a barren balance sheet and folks were feeling the pinch. When the American stock exchange collapsed in 1929, the ensuing economic depression saw the German chancellor embark on a programme of cuts in government spending, wages and benefits. Stop me when this sounds familiar. In the ensuing tide of national bitterness arose one Adolf Hitler. His shiny brand of nationalism offered something to cheer for, and his racial scapegoats offered someone to blame, the rest is history.

Prejudice is the last refuge of the disempowered. When the biscuit tin gets bare, some eyes will always scrutinise with whom they have been sharing the Bourbon Creams. Famine will find out the cannibals, while most of us starve politely. Surely the acid test of any truly civilised society is whether the strong protect the rest, or feed off them. And these are indeed testing times.

Item Clubbing

 The Ernst and Young Item club is not the kind of club where you might find a glitter ball, and this week it is definitely not running a happy hour. The economic forecasting body does, however, have something of a crystal ball, through which they have cut their predictions for UK growth, thinking output will rise by just 0.9% this year, and by 1.5% by 2012. They base their assertions on the Treasury’s own model of the economy, which to all intents and purposes could do with a lot more glue.

The downgrade is based upon the seemingly inevitable ejection of Greece from the back door of the Euro club, the bouncers calling a cab for Ireland and Portugal too. It is felt that the current crisis in the Euro-zone could push Britain’s gross domestic product down to levels below those reached in the recession of 2008/2009. So basically, things are bad, and likely to be worse than the last time they told us things were bad.

The G20 leaders met in Cannes over the weekend, nice work if you can get it, but failed again to agree a comprehensive plan to effectively underwrite the single currency. A trillion Euro rescue package might have allayed fears, had France and Germany been able to say how it would be funded. Angela Merkel was left looking for change down the back of the sofa, and Carla Bruni will be sent out busking.

David Cameron is looking increasingly frustrated with his counterparts from mainland Europe. Not technically part of the team of course, he was heckling from the G20 sidelines, like a Sunday league football Dad this weekend. He said “the world can’t wait for the Eurozone to go through endless questions and changes.” He has a point. The combined might of the collected ministerial grey matter on offer in Cannes sadly went home with still more questions than answers, but change is long overdue. One modification that might help however is a new hand on the tiller in Italy. Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi has finally stated that he will resign after austerity measures are passed to bolster the country’s beleaguered balance sheet. Not before time. He has been gripping so tight to his prime position I’d be surprised if he can still feel his fingers.

 So, Greece may be the first to get the Drachmas out of the attic, will the Lira and the Punt be dusted down thereafter? Of course, if Greece’s ID had been properly checked before they had time to set up a bar tab, then their neighbours might not have been left paying it. You can get into trouble for getting a tax disc under false pretences, what is the fine for an entire financial system? Eyes will roll, but let’s face it, heads probably won’t.

Cathedral City

The Occupy London movement yesterday performed a loosely choreographed mass dance routine to Michael Jackson’s Thriller, in tattered suits and zombie make-up, holding a banner saying “Dancing on the grave of capitalism”. That’ll show the bankers. Almost simultaneously, the Dean of St Paul’s Cathedral, the Right Reverend Graeme Knowles, resigned from his post, saying that he felt his position had become untenable, and a fresh approach was needed, “ to the complex and vital questions facing St Paul’s.” On the contrary, acknowledging that you might be more a part of the crisis than the cure, is quite the freshest approach in years. Our leaders have made us more accustomed to the last-one-to-realise-I’m-rubbish style of management.  Even the best intentioned can eventually evolve from healer to heal, but all too often they can’t see the writing on the wall until they’re being pushed off it.

Rev Knowles is the next ecclesiastical casualty, after Giles Fraser, the Canon Chancellor quit. He was concerned that any potential eviction of the anti-capitalist camp would amount to “violence in the name of the Church”. His departure was essentially in protest at the prospect of legal action. As Dale Farm displayed, such actions are often elongated, expensive, and exceedingly messy.

In all the comings and goings between protester and Protestant, the bankers who supposedly triggered this outpouring of outrage have been barely mentioned. While the great and the good have been falling on their swords, the City seems to have escaped even a scratch. Again, some would say. Whilst many, large sections of the Church of England included, have sympathy for the protesters’ principles, there is less, perhaps, for their practices. It feels a bit like fleas declaring war on the cat they live on, and may be just as likely to succeed.

If the thermal imaging cameras are to be believed, then many of campers creep home for some comfort of an evening. One suspects that if the TV cameras went home as well, then the campaigners might not creep back for breakfast. But if they are in residence in the early hours as well, then surely nature will effect an eviction of her own. If you really want Glastonbury out of your garden, just be patient. St Paul’s might have saved a few bob, and the odd job, just waiting for winter.

For now, an uneasy impasse exists. In amongst the publicity stunts and sound bites, one question I have heard from the clerics, the commentators and the canvas dwellers themselves, is “what would Jesus do?”  Good point. You would hope that someone running a cathedral might have asked him.